It’s that time of the year again, and
Adobe is back with its annual forecast of online holiday shopping.
The good news: Online holiday retail will grow from 5% to 15%, depending on the state of the pandemic. That’s decent, except in comparison with last year’s lockdown-driven growth of 33%. The report, based on more than a trillion visits to U.S. retail sites that run Adobe’s software and a survey of U.S. consumers and retailers, underscores online’s gains, despite physical stores reopening. The bad news: inflation and supply-chain woes. Consumers will pay 9% more than they did a year ago during Cyber Week, on average for comparable goods. The report warns of a “plague” of out-of-stock messages, up 172% from the pre-pandemic tally.
This year’s shopping season—Nov. 1 through Dec. 31—will be spread out more evenly than in the past. Adobe projects online sales on Cyber Monday (the Monday after Thanksgiving weekend) of $11.3 billion, 4% above the year-earlier level. It sees Black Friday sales (the Friday after Thanksgiving) of $9.5 billion, up 5%; and Thanksgiving Day sales of $5.4 billion, up 6%. Discounts should range from 5% to 25%, down from an historic 10% to 30%. The biggest: on PCs and electronics.
Adobe’s predicted most popular gifts: Toys: Tamagotchi Pix, Pop Fidget, Got2Glow Fairy Finder, Baby Yoda, Gabby’s Dollhouse. Gaming hardware: Nintendo Switch OLED, PlayStation 5, Xbox Series S/X, Stream Deck from Elgato. Gaming software: Metroid Dread, Battlefield 2042, Pokémon Brilliant Diamond & Shining Pearl, Halo Infinite, FIFA 22. Others: AirPods Maxes, smart mugs and water bottles, Instant Pot air fryers, drones, record players.
Megacap tech companies headline the week’s quarterly results starting with
Facebook, which reports after the close. Alphabet and
Microsoft follow on Tuesday, and
Apple on Thursday.
Cadence Design Systems,
Kimberly-Clark, and Otis Worldwide release quarterly results.
Advanced Micro Devices,
Capital One Financial, Chubb,
Lockheed Martin, MSCI,
Raytheon Technologies, S&P Global,
United Parcel Service, and Visa report earnings.
The Census Bureau reports sales of new single-family houses for September. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 775,000 homes sold, 35,000 more than the August figure.
The Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index for October. Expectations are for a 110 reading, similar to the September data. The index is 15% lower than its recent peak in June, with concern about the spread of the Delta variant and inflation dampening consumer optimism.
S&P CoreLogic releases its Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for August. Economists forecast a 20% year-over-year rise, a tick higher than July’s 19.7% increase. If that estimate proves correct, it would be the fifth consecutive monthly record gain for the index.
Automatic Data Processing,
Bristol Myers Squibb,
Hilton Worldwide Holdings,
International Paper, Kraft Heinz,
Old Dominion Freight Line, ServiceNow,
Spotify Technology, and
Thermo Fisher Scientific release quarterly results.
The Census Bureau releases the durable-goods report for September. New orders for manufactured durable goods are expected to decline 0.5% month over month to $262 billion, after a 1.8% gain in August. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen rising 0.8%, above August’s 0.3% gain.
Altria Group, American Tower,
Mastercard, Merck, Moody’s, Newmont,
Starbucks, and Yum! Brands hold conference calls to discuss earnings.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports its preliminary estimate for third-quarter GDP. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of 4%, after the economy grew 6.7% in the second quarter.
Cboe Global Markets,
L3Harris Technologies, and Weyerhaeuser report quarterly results.
Write to Eric J. Savitz at [email protected]